Trapped in the Strategic Trilemma: Ukraine's role in the Black Sea region (2022-2024) ISWS Seminar Series

The Black Sea region exemplifies heightened geopolitical complexity, primarily due to the divergent military, economic, and legal interests among its littoral states. These states, confronted with the challenge of pursuing conflicting objectives, often adopt policies that appear inconsistent and incoherent. In this volatile geopolitical environment, characterized by significant risks and intense competition, a nuanced understanding of the underlying dynamics is essential.
This research highlights the unique dimensions of the conflict and the state of international cooperation, focusing on the Black Sea region, a theater of heightened geopolitical complexity. The concept of the strategic “trilemma” is employed to elucidate these dynamics, providing a framework to understand the competing military, economic, and legal interests of the littoral states.
For Ukraine, the strategic trilemma involves three critical imperatives: 1) the restoration and upholding of national sovereignty within its 1991 borders, 2) the deterrence and defense against Russian aggression, and 3) the maintenance of a regional order conducive to Ukraine's economic development. These objectives, while all vital, cannot be simultaneously achieved without compromise, making the trilemma a crucial analytical tool.
This research not only provides a comprehensive account of Ukraine's strategic dilemmas but also sheds light on how multilateral perspectives can enhance our understanding of international conflict dynamics, offering a more nuanced view of the possibilities and constraints of international cooperation in the Black Sea region

Dr. Victoria Vdovychenko is a widely recognized and published expert on the issues of hybrid warfare, strategic communication, with particular emphasis on relations between Ukraine and the European Union as well as NATO.
Victoria has got MSc and PhD in Foreign Policy and World History, Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine.

She is working on the challenges of the European Union, Euro-Atlantic integration, hybrid warfare, strategic communication collaborating with such educational institutions as University of Bologna, George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies, KU Leuven, University Catholic Louvain, Cambridge University.
She was a Team Lead for the Assistance Advisory Team working with VPM on European and Euro-Atlantic Integration on the future of ANP Ukraine-NATO as well as on the system of LI&LL from the resilience of Ukraine.