A CREEM seminar titled “Modelling species’ population trends accounting for weather–related observation bias” by Dr Peter Henrys, from the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology.
Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity is a key environmental challenge. Robust analyses depend on both long term species records and climate data, however, species records can be severely affected by short term weather. Weather at the time of sampling can affect the detectability and hence have a direct influence on the species’ response. Here I present a modelling approach that combines both long term climate data and localised short term weather data into a single, unified approach. The model is then applied to data from the Environmental Change Network to analyse the potential impact of climate change on moth abundance.