Past event
Department of Economics Seminar with Professor Andrea Ferrero, University of Oxford Optimal stabilization policies in the wake of large shocks
Abstract: We study the joint optimal fiscal and monetary policy response to the large shocks that have affected the US economy between 2020 and 2024. Our approach allows for occasionally binding constraints on the monetary policy rate and on a household borrowing constraint. A benevolent policymaker seeks to minimize social losses due to the volatility of inflation, the output gap, and the difference in the marginal utility of consumption of borrowers and savers. Optimal monetary policy manages a standard inflation-output tradeoff while optimal fiscal policy sets transfers countercyclically to limit the inequality between different types of households. Through the lens of the model, the actual monetary policy tightening was too slow and not strong enough to contain inflationary pressures upon liftoff from the zero bound. Similarly, the first round of fiscal transfers was not generous and persistent enough, while the second was unwarranted.